By: Tobechi Michael
#UFC268 is going down tonight (depending on where you are on the planet). So here are my predictions.
In the Women’s Strawweight title fight, it is Rose Namajunas vs Zhang Weili 2. In their last fight, Rose used the “question mark” kick, Zhang thought she was going for land an outside leg kick, didn’t put up her guard, and before she could understand what was about to happen, the kick went straight to her head and it was good night. Bookmakers pick Zhang to win this rematch and get her title back, but I pick Rose as the winner with a 70% chance. And my reasons are simple. Zhang is a brawler and Rose is more of a technical fighter with better techniques. If the fight goes to a brawl, Zhang will do a lot of damage to Rose’s beautiful face. If it goes to the ground Zhang still wins. But Rose knows this and she will most likely avoid all these scenarios.
In the Lightweight, Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler. Too close to call. It will mostly be a stand-up fight. Chandler has a style of outstretching his body when he is attacking with punches and this leaves him vulnerable. I think Gaethje has a 55% chance of winning because although both of them are equally matched, Chandler’s offence has quite a number of loopholes that Gaethje can exploit.
In the Middleweight, we have Alex Pereira vs. Andreas Michailidis. The only reason folks are focussing on this match is because Alex is the only man who has ever knocked out Israel Adesanya. People may say what they like, but the only reason he has some respect in MMA, even though he only just switched from Kickboxing to MMA, is because of his 2 victories over Izzy, especially the KO. But he will be fighting against a Greek, Michailidis, who is not an elite striker by any length. I think Alex wins because the only way Michailidis wins is via ground game and Alex has a shown a decent take down defence. So, expect to see stuff you should expect from one of the world’s best Kickboxers. In my books Alex has a 90% chance of winning.
For the Main Card and the climax of the night, it is the Welterweight title bout and it is “Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington 2”. Their first fight, which was won by Usman, was action-packed and is said to be one of the best UFC bouts of 2019. But this is 2021. That Usman and this Usman are two different people. We have seen Usman evolve into an elite striker since 2019. He has learnt to strike better and mix up his striking a little bit more. His KO victory over Masvidal was textbook stuff and will remain a reference point in the world of mixed martial arts for a long time to come. Since their last fight, Usman has been the more active of the two, with three fights, while Colby has had only one fight, a victory over a washed out Tyron Woodley.
Colby moves instinctively in straight lateral patterns which makes his movements very predictable and Usman will be looking to catch him with a straight punch. If Colby is able to feint and make more head movements, he will expose Usman’s vulnerabilities for exploitation with Counter strikes. But Usman has the height and reach advantage and he will not hesitate to leverage on it while touching up Colby.
My verdict: if Usman “shows up”, he will win in a spectacular fashion. Else, Colby wins. This fight will be entertaining! It will be another reference point for a long while.
Colby will put up a great show and an awesome performance but Usman in my books, has a 90% chance of winning.
